The Downfall of Ronald Koeman

Ronald Koeman’s tenure as Everton manager lasted 496 days. During his time at the club, Everton have spent nearly a quarter of a billion pounds. £150 million of which were spent last summer. Ronald Koeman, like Roberto Martinez, had a great first season. But also like Roberto Martinez, he had a disaster afterwards and fans quickly turned on him.

In spite of a fantastic home record last season, Everton’s poor away record more or less evened it out. Everton fans wanted the club to break the top 6, and now they have money, they felt that it can be achievable. The task was made harder following the sale of Romelu Lukaku and fans desperately wanted them to sign a top-class striker as the signings of Wayne Rooney and Sandro Ramirez as well as the deadline day signing from the previous summer Dominic Calvert-Lewin are not good enough to be classed as such. Olivier Giroud was the one Koeman wanted but he decided to stay. After that, the club didn’t seem to have a plan B. But why did Everton have to wait for Giroud to make a decision on his then-questionable future when there were other players available like, for example, Javier Hernandez and Kelechi Iheanacho? Both would have been great signings for Everton, but they ended up joining West Ham and Leicester respectively instead. The blame there lies with not only Koeman, but Steve Walsh and the board as well.

The lack of a top-class striker was evident in Everton’s abysmal start to the season. Not just that but Everton’s lack of attacking threat as a whole. So far in the Premier League this season, Everton had 59 shots from the inside the area but only 6 resulted in goals – a success rate of just 10.2%. Only Southampton, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace have a worse success rate. Dominic Calvert-Lewin in particular had 16 shots from inside the area but scored no goals. Everton had their chances but they didn’t make the most of them. With a top-class striker, it could have been entirely different.

Another problem is tactics. Ronald Koeman just didn’t have a plan. All he did was change the formation over and over again and hoped for the best.

Opponents Formation
Ruzomberok 4-2-3-1
Ruzomberok 3-4-1-2
Stoke 3-4-2-1
Hajduk Split 4-2-3-1
Manchester City 3-4-2-1
Hajduk Split 4-2-3-1
Chelsea 3-4-2-1
Tottenham 4-2-3-1
Atalanta 4-2-3-1
Manchester United 3-4-2-1
Sunderland 4-2-3-1
Bournemouth 4-2-3-1
Apollon Limassol 4-2-3-1
Burnley 4-2-3-1
Brighton 4-2-3-1
Lyon 4-1-4-1
Arsenal 3-4-2-1

The players had difficulty gelling at the start of the season, but they are still having difficulty gelling now. But how can they gel when the formation almost always changes and there’s no plan? The tactics were too defensive and there was no width. Everton fell behind in 11 of their last 12 games in all competitions. The one game they didn’t fall behind in was against Sunderland. And when they fell behind, they didn’t bounce back and believe they could still win. The one time they did, they relied on a player Ronald Koeman refused to give a locker to. The mess Everton were in on the pitch is shown below.

Everton had a difficult start fixtures-wise – they had to play Manchester City, Chelsea, Tottenham, Manchester United and Arsenal in their first 9 league games. They were bound to be difficult games but that doesn’t mean they weren’t beatable. Burnley managed 5 points out of 12 away from home against Chelsea, Tottenham, Liverpool and Manchester City (plus 3 points at Goodison!). Everton only managed 1 point against the top 6 teams. Everton’s performances against the teams on paper they should have beaten were also below par. And their overall performance in the Europa League group stage was awful. Before this season, Ronald Koeman won only 3 of his previous 25 European matches. Was the writing on the wall but we just walked past it?

The final nail in the coffin was the Arsenal game. Purely for this statistic alone.

Everton are currently in the relegation zone and virtually out of Europe because of dreadful tactics, players being at sixes and sevens (especially in some games where they easily could have conceded six or seven) and zero killer instinct. Some people might say that Ronald Koeman was let go too early. Some might say Steve Walsh and the board were more to blame for not signing the right players. However, in order for a manager to succeed, they need to relish these challenges and sort out a plan that suits the team and stick with it, play players who actually play in those positions and believe there’s no such thing as “expected defeats.”

Everton have spent £150 million to be a laughing stock. The fans deserve better. And it’s vital that Koeman’s successor turns things round.

Romelu Lukaku and His Critics

On February 25th, Romelu Lukaku became Everton’s joint-highest goalscorer in the Premier League by scoring in Everton’s 2-0 win over Sunderland. His tally of 60 goals equals Duncan Ferguson’s record. In recent months, Everton fans have been disputing who was the better player: Lukaku or Ferguson. But should there really be a dispute in the first place?

Pro-Ferguson fans have said Lukaku doesn’t have the passion Ferguson had and Lukaku is “lazy”. It’s not only pro-Ferguson Evertonians who have been criticising Lukaku – former teammate Leon Osman said before Christmas that Lukaku only wants to score goals.

Despite his critics, a lot of fans believe Romelu Lukaku is Everton’s greatest player in the Premier League era – and the facts back that up.

  • He has scored 10+ league goals in 4 consecutive seasons – the first Everton player to do so since Adrian Heath did it in 5 consecutive seasons (1982/83-1986/87), and the first Everton striker to do so since Bob Latchford, who also did it in 5 consecutive seasons (1974/75-1978/79).
  • He has scored 15+ league goals in 2 consecutive seasons – the first Everton player to do so since Graeme Sharp in the 1984/85 and 1985/86 seasons.
  • He has scored a goal every 2.15 games – the best goals-per-game ratio by an Everton player in the Premier League (minimum 10 goals).
  • His goalscoring tallies last season (18) and this season (17) are the two highest by an Everton player in a single Premier League season.

And here is a stats comparison between Lukaku and Duncan Ferguson.

  • Even though Lukaku and Ferguson have both scored 60 Premier League goals, Lukaku reached the tally in 110 fewer games than Ferguson.
  • Lukaku has scored 10+ league goals in all 4 of his seasons at Everton, whereas Ferguson only managed to do so twice in his 10-and-a-half seasons at the club.
  • Lukaku’s top three Premier League season goal tallies were 18, 17 (at time of this post) and 15. Ferguson’s were 11, 10 and 7.
  • Lukaku has scored a goal every 2.15 Premier League games for Everton whereas Ferguson scored a goal every 3.98 Premier League games.
  • In all competitions, Lukaku scored a goal every 1.95 games for Everton whereas Ferguson scored a goal every 3.79 games.

Duncan Ferguson will always have a place in Evertonians’ hearts, but that doesn’t mean there can’t be another Everton player better than him. Even if Romelu Lukaku isn’t as passionate as Ferguson was, does that really matter? Lukaku is only 23 as well, so if Everton manage to keep hold of him for a few more years, Everton will grow and grow. Despite his age, he has scored 77 goals in the Premier League. He can easily score 100 by the end of next season, and he could only get better from there if he carries on the way he has been playing. In fact, he has contributed to 102 goals in the Premier League – 77 goals plus 26 assists. And since the start of last season, Lukaku has contributed to 45 goals in the Premier League – 35 goals plus 10 assists. Everton are really lucky to have him.

For over 20 years, Everton fans have been yearning for a proficient goalscoring striker – and now we have one. So why are people complaining?

What’s Going On With Everton?

Up to the middle of September, Everton fans’ hopes were high. Everton had one of their best ever league starts and it appeared that the Martinez era quickly became a thing of the past. However, since their shock League Cup defeat to Norwich, it has all gone downhill. Everton have won just once in their last 9 games in all competitions. Here are the key reasons that could explain their severe drop in form.

Slow starters

Everton have an abysmal first half record. In the Premier League season, they have scored 6 goals in the first half – 1 against Tottenham, 1 against West Brom (in added time), 3 against Middlesbrough (1 in added time) and 1 against Crystal Palace. Therefore, they haven’t scored in the first half in 9 out of 13 Premier League games this season. And this is not new. They have failed to score in 11 out of their last 13 Premier League games away from home, and in that same run, they ended up winning only twice. It gets worse. The two away games they did score in the first half came in added time.

Everton, for some reason, just can’t seem to score in the first half. Why is that? Poor finishing? Poor teamwork? Here are Everton’s first half stats.

everton-first-half-statsAs you can see, there are some stark contrasts, particularly with shots. In Everton’s first 5 games this season, half of their shots in the first half was on target. Since then, around a quarter have been on target. Also, it is fair to say that scoring just one goal out of 43 shots is shambolic.

It is evident that Everton’s poor first half is costing them dearly. Severely poor finishing has meant that other teams took advantage with good teamwork and taught Everton how it should be done.

The defence

It isn’t just poor attacking, it’s poor defending as well. Everton have given away 4 penalties this season, which is already more than or equal to the number of penalties they conceded in 8 of the previous 10 seasons. 3 of those penalties were given away by captain Phil Jagielka. It’s surprising how quickly the Everton defence have deteriorated. The defence had a very strong start and were almost faultless. But in the previous 8 games, the exact opposite happened.

The average shots on target figure has doubled, the average amount of touches in Everton’s penalty area has increased by nearly 60% and Everton have allowed 7 more crosses per game in the previous 8 games. As you can see, Everton have become more and more exposed defensively. Everton have also kept only 3 out of 13 clean sheets in the Premier League this season and conceded the first goal of the game 7 times (including 4 of their last 5 games). It isn’t any wonder that the club is in very poor form with stats like these.

Lack of young blood

One solution fans have offered was playing youngsters. Mason Holgate has already made a huge impact at the club. Despite playing only 3 games, he has 1 assist to his name and won every single tackle. His performances have been widely acclaimed but he hasn’t played a single minute since Seamus Coleman returned from injury. Holgate can play centre-back as well as right-back, so he can replace heavily-criticised Phil Jagielka.

Tom Davies is another acclaimed youngster. He has only made a few substitute appearances this season, so he made little contribution. But he’s only 18; those substitute appearances will have helped him grow as a footballer because of the first-team experience. Him partnering Idrissa Gueye could be ideal for Everton.

Another youngster is Kieran Dowell. The 19-year-old hasn’t played yet this season, however he has already played 3 times for the club and started in last season’s 3-0 win over Norwich, giving him more taste of Premier League football. He could be a good replacement for out-of-form Ross Barkley.

It isn’t just the three aforementioned players Ronald Koeman could play. Everton U23 are top of the Premier League 2, winning 7 out of their 11 games and losing only twice. They have also scored more than 2 goals per game and have conceded only 9. Other honourable mentions are summer signing Dominic Calvert-Lewin (who has scored 4 goals in 8 PL2 games), Jonjoe Kenny (the U23 captain) and Liam Walsh.

If need be, one or two U18s could have a go. Particularly Fraser Hornby, who has scored 10 goals in 10 games, including 4 against Stoke U18.

It’s fair to say that it’s far too soon for Hornby, but if he gets a chance in the reserves and he impresses, who’s to say he won’t be a first-team player sooner rather than later?

The manager?

It’s nearly December and fans already want Ronald Koeman to be sacked. Is there any justifiable reason? He has inherited a team that has been very low in morale and adapted to terrible tactics. It was always going to be a mammoth task for Koeman to transform the team and make them a club others hate to play against again. He has only been in charge of Everton for 13 games in the Premier League this season, earning 19 points. By comparison, he has earned one point more than Howard Kendall after his first 13 Everton games in the league, and two points fewer than Harry Catterick. So an average start doesn’t always mean impending doom.

One criticism of Koeman would be not giving youth a chance. But all in all, is his managerial performance so far sackable? It’s highly doubtful. A top 8 finish is still possible, but it’s the players who have to put more of an effort in and turn Everton’s fortunes around. Because Koeman has very limited options (until January at least).

Koeman At 10

When Ronald Koeman came to Everton, he had a big task on his hands. Morale was low, Everton were underperforming and fans were turning against their club. So, 10 games in, has he made any progress? The short answer is yes.

A Blistering Start

After a competent 1-1 draw against Tottenham, Everton won 5 consecutive games in all competitions. After last season, Everton fans couldn’t wish for a better start. In the Premier League, Everton earned 13 out of a possible 15 points, which (taking goal difference and goals scored into consideration) was their 5th best ever league start (adjusted to 3 points for a win). Also, the club’s 4 league wins showed promise for the future. Before this season, Everton won at least 4 of their opening 5 league games 10 times, eventually finishing in the top 2 seven times. The previous couple of seasons were already looking likely to be eradicated from Everton fans’ minds. And Koeman had seemingly already transformed the team.

martinez-v-koeman

A Slight Dip in Form

Following the League Cup defeat to lower-league Norwich, a defeat to Bournemouth and a draw against Crystal Palace, fans were unhappy with the club’s performances in those games. Some fans were turning against their own players again, and Koeman as well, in spite of a great start to the season.

It is inevitable that a dip in form would take place some time during the season. Ronald Koeman, his brother Erwin and Jan Kluitenberg amongst others had just joined the club, so Everton cannot be expected to be world-beaters overnight.

Because of that dip in form, before the game against Manchester City, fans were worried about how Everton would fare against greater opposition. Evidently, those fans weren’t aware that Ronald Koeman was in charge of a Southampton side that beat Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester City and Manchester United the previous season. Nowadays, beating those five teams in a single season is incredibly difficult. Take into consideration as well that Everton earned a point against last season’s title contenders Tottenham when the players were “70% fit”. So Koeman knows how to play against the big teams. And he showed it again after Everton drew to Manchester City 1-1, despite Everton having only 28% possession. He relied on his defence and Stekelenburg and they made him and the fans proud.

The Defence

Last season, Everton’s defence was atrocious. They had lost 20 points from winning positions and conceded 55 goals, 22 of them in the final 30 minutes of the game. It was evident that poor defending and tactics played a massive contribution to Everton’s downfall. But then along came Koeman.

In the Premier League so far, Everton have conceded 6 goals, and the club hasn’t conceded more than one goal in a game. The defence is already showing phenomenal progress. One weakness, however, is aerial defending. 4 of the 6 goals Everton have conceded in the Premier League this season have come from header. In fact, Everton have lost 6 points from winning positions so far this season, all because of conceding headed goals. Since the start of last season, Everton have conceded more headed goals than any other team in the Premier League – a very high 18 goals. So this is a problem Ronald Koeman has to sort out sooner rather than later.

That being said, aerial defending is the Everton defence’s only weakness. One statistical quirk is that Everton have yet to conceded a single goal from a kicked shot inside the area in the Premier League. Overall, they have conceded only one kicked goal in the 8 games in the Premier League so far. So, when the ball is on the ground, Everton’s defence is almost impenetrable.

Statistic Amount PL Rank
Goals Conceded 6 19th
Shots On Target Faced 22 18th
Interceptions 90 17th
Clearances 243 2nd
Shots Blocked 38 5th
Crosses Blocked 28 =1st
Passes Blocked 79 5th
Tackles Attempted 280 2nd
Tackles Won 180 2nd

The stats show that Everton have become more aggressive this season. Last season, they have been a bit soft. In fact, last season, they attempted the second-fewest amount of tackles in the Premier League. So, some aggression was badly needed and, so far, it has paid dividends. Also, Everton have made just one defensive error all season. At this stage last season, they made 7 defensive errors.

 

The Signings

Paul Pogba cost over £90 million. N’Golo Kante cost £30 million. Idrissa Gueye? A measly £7 million. Who has had the better season? Gueye by an absolute lightyear.

So far, Idrissa Gueye has won 43 tackles in the league this season. No player in the top 5 European leagues has won more. The only other player who won as many is Nantes defender Lucas Lima. And Lima played one game more than Gueye! Idrissa Gueye has been everywhere, as shown by his touch maps below.

idrissa-gueye-touch-maps

Ashley Williams has made a bit of an impact, too. His experience, leadership skills and strong defending helped Everton improve their backbone and made him more than just a John Stones replacement. He made 54 clearances (joint-10th highest in the Premier League), and his partnership with Phil Jagielka has become one of the most defensively solid partnerships in the Premier League.

Yannick Bolasie, so far, is a question mark. He has 3 assists to his name (all for goals scored by Romelu Lukaku), however that didn’t stop fans questioning his ability. In the past two games, Yannick Bolasie made 14 crosses, but only one has been successful. In total, only 11 out of 46 crosses have been successful. After Everton paid around £25 million for the winger, one would expect him to be a better crosser.

When Maarten Stekelenburg signed for Everton, fans thought he was going to be the number-two goalkeeper. However, apart from a youngster from Oldham, Everton didn’t sign another goalkeeper. Fans were wary about Stekelenburg, in spite of his experience. He had a bit of a quiet start. However, his own goal didn’t help if he wanted to silence his critics (although, in Stekelenburg’s defence, he was fouled). He did silence his critics in the end by performing a goalkeeping masterclass against Manchester City. He saved two penalties (only the second time ever an Everton goalkeeper saved two penalties in the same game) and two goalbound fingertip saves helped Everton earn a brilliant point. That performance will undoubtedly boost his confidence.

Deadline Day signing Enner Valencia has yet to make much of an impact yet. However, given how well Romelu Lukaku is doing, it is unlikely that he will do.

The Resurgence of Romelu Lukaku

Before this season, Romelu Lukaku had a poor 2016. 3 goals in 18 Premier League games was an abysmal record for a striker. He wanted to leave Everton, however over time, it seems apparent that this was largely down to his strained relationship with Roberto Martinez. But once Everton signed his best mate Yannick Bolasie, he was happy again.

So far, Lukaku has scored 6 goals in the Premier League – only Diego Costa scored more with 7. His 11-minute hat-trick against Sunderland was the fastest by an Everton player since 1980. And he is one goal away from becoming the third Everton player to score 50 goals in the Premier League. He is happy at Everton again, and thanks to Koeman and Bolasie, it looks like he will be staying at Everton for a little while.

Conclusion

A solid start for Everton. Ronald Koeman, Idrissa Gueye and Ashley Williams instantly made themselves at home, while Maarten Stekelenburg has just finished decorating and Yannick Bolasie is still deciding on which wallpaper to use. Everton’s tally of 15 points after 8 games is their joint-best tally in the Premier League era. Which season did they also reach that tally after 8 games? The 2013/14 season, where they ended up with a record-breaking 72 points.

The signs are looking good. Let’s hope the players keep their heads screwed on and there won’t be any bad injuries.

How Important Is Romelu Lukaku?

Romelu Lukaku’s future at Everton is uncertain as he has told the media that he would like to play for a club that can win trophies and play in the Champions League. So how important is he for Everton? Here is a statistical analysis of Romelu Lukaku in the Premier League in the past three seasons.

2013/14 Season

2014/15 Season

2015/16 Season

Summary

Other Key Stats

  • Everton’s top goalscorer in the past three seasons.
  • Scored in 7 consecutive matches in all the 2015/16 Premier League – the most in the league since Bob Latchford scored in 7 consecutive matches in the 1975/76 First Division.
  • Scored against 11 different teams in the 2015/16 Premier League – the most by an Everton player since Paul Rideout scored against 12 in the 1994/95 Premier League.
  • Romelu Lukaku has scored only 3 goals in his past 18 league games.
  • Romelu Lukaku has scored 18 goals in the league and 25 in all competitions in the 2015/16 season – the most since Gary Lineker scored 30 and 40 respectively in the 1985/86 season.
  • Romelu Lukaku has scored 61 goals in 127 games in all competitions – a goals-per-game ratio of 0.48 (joint-fifth highest with Bob Latchford).

Judging by the stats given, Romelu Lukaku is Everton’s most important attacking player. Without him, it is very likely that Everton would have been in dire straits, particularly as Everton did not have another striker in the same league as him and they also had a very weak defence. So if Romelu Lukaku does leave Everton, the club needs to sign a well-renowned striker with a great goalscoring record in one of the top 5 European leagues as soon as possible. Otherwise, relegation is on the cards. Ross Barkley and Gerard Deulofeu, to name a couple, are great players and can play a key part for Everton, but without a reliable striker, none of that would matter.

However, this all depends on who the next Everton manager will be and/or whether Romelu Lukaku will change his mind and wants to stay. The 2016/17 season will definitely be Everton’s most important season in a very long time.

 

Everton’s 2015/16 Statistical Summary

Everton have had their worst ever home record (23 points) [adjusted for 3 points for a win].

Everton have kept just 3 clean sheets at home in the Premier League – all against the relegated teams.

Everton have won 6 home games in the league. They have won fewer in only one season previously (5 in 1957/58).

Everton have finished in the bottom half of the Premier League for the second consecutive season after finishing in the top 8 in the previous 8 seasons.

Everton have finished in the bottom half of the Premier League in consecutive seasons for the first time since they finished in the bottom half in every season from 1996/97 to 2001/02.

Everton have conceded 30 goals at home in the league – the most since 1993/94.

Everton conceded 3+ goals in 3 consecutive games for the first time since 2002.

Everton have lost 18 points from winning positions and retained just 7 points from losing positions.

Everton have lost their last 10 games when their opponents have scored first.

Everton have allowed their opponents to score at home 10 times in the league and did not win any of those games and lost 7 times.

Everton have been in a losing position at half time 11 times in the league, winning just once and lost 9 times.

Everton have conceded 15 goals in the last 15 minutes of a league game – the joint-most in the Premier League.

Everton have conceded 16 goals in the last 15 minutes of the first half of a league – the most in the Premier League.

Everton have conceded 31 goals in the last 15 minutes of a half in a league game – the most in the Premier League.

Everton have conceded 2+ goals in a game 19 times in all competitions.

Everton have conceded 3+ goals in a game 11 times in all competitions.

Everton have scored 2+ goals in a game 24 times in all competitions.

Everton have scored 3+ goals in a game 14 times in all competitions.

Everton are the only team to go through the entire season without scoring from a free kick, directly or crossed, in the Premier League.

Everton have the joint-second best shot accuracy in the Premier League (51%) – only Tottenham have better shot accuracy (53%).

Everton have won 50% of duels in the Premier League – only Arsenal have a higher percentage (52%). However, they have won the fewest amount of aerial duels in the Premier League (487).

Everton have committed the fewest amount of fouls in the Premier League (313).

Everton have made 508 interceptions in the Premier League – only Norwich have made fewer (470).

Everton have the second-best discipline in the Premier League (52 cards) – only Arsenal have a better discipline (46 cards).

Everton have made 25 defensive errors in the Premier League – only Liverpool (31) and Watford (26) have made more. 9 of those errors led to a goal.

Everton have hit the woodwork 13 times in the Premier League – only Tottenham have hit the woodwork more (14 times).

Everton have saved 127 shots in the Premier League – only Sunderland have saved more (155).

Everton have made the highest amount of accurate long balls in the Premier League (1,383).

Everton have conceded 12 goals from corners – only Swansea have conceded more (15).

Romelu Lukaku has scored 18 league goals – the most since Gary Lineker scored 30 in 1985/86.

Romelu Lukaku has scored 25 goals in all competitions – the most since Gary Lineker scored 40 in 1985/86.

In the first half of the season, Romelu Lukaku had a games-per-goal ratio of a goal every 1.27 games. In the second half of the season, Lukaku had a games-per-goal ratio of a goal every 6 games.

Ross Barkley and Gerard Deulofeu made the most assists for Everton in the league (8 assists). However, Deulofeu had more than half less game time than Barkley. In fact, Deulofeu had an assist every 174 minutes.

Romelu Lukaku has made 118 shots in the Premier League – only Harry Kane (158) and Sergio Aguero (119) made more.

Ross Barkley has had the third highest amount of take-ons in the Premier League (115), winning 63% of them.